infrastruttura

no. 46

Mega-project ambitions in Saudi Arabia are creating a cash crunch in Riyadh for Vision 2030.

From the PGA Tour to the 2032 World Cup and a new airline, Saudi Arabia has been on a spending binge since 2020. But de factor ruler MBS's "giga-projects" are starting to strain the Kingdom's cash reserves as it pushes to realize its Vision 2030 through the New Murabba, NEOM, and Diriyah developments. Will these futuristic giga-projects ever make it across the finish line?

Halfway through Vision 2030, giga-project spending is ramping up in Saudi at a moment when inflation and rising interest rates are colliding with stagnant oil revenues. According to the Wall Street Journal, the current state of the Kingdom's finances make it plausible that dreams of turning it into the "Europe of the Middle East" could be scaled back or pieces even scrapped.

For example, since December 2020, when the Saudi sovereign wealth fund began reporting data on its reserves, cash-on-hand has dropped by 75% to around $15 billion. Yet the Kingdom will need at least $300 billion more just to complete NEOM.

This is a problem because Saudi Arabia's oil revenues are flat. The government needed $86 per barrel in 2023 and $80 this year to balance its budget; prices have averaged around $81 over the last year. But the country's overall finances still look good by comparison - it ran a budget deficit of just 2 percent of GDP in 2023 (compared to over 6 percent in the US) and its overall debt stands at 26% of GDP (although it was less than 1.5% in 2015) compared to 123% in the US.

Still, to keep projects moving, the Kingdom is considering another sale of stock in Saudi Aramco (the world's third most valuable company, behind Microsoft and Apple). In 2019, the country's sovereign wealth fund (the PIF) raised over $25 billion by selling around 1% of Aramco. It could do the same today. Alternatively, Saudi Arabia will need to borrow, taking on more financial risk by either adding debt or lowering its foreign-currency reserves (which allow it to keep its currency, the riyal, pegged to the dollar, and which have already dropped to $400 billion from $700 billion in 2015).

The Kingdom's cash crunch is also due to relatively limited direct foreign investment (DFI) to date in its Vision 2030 projects. Why? MBS's promised legal and social reforms have moved slowly. Geopolitical tensions have lingered over the 2018 death of Jamal Khashoggi. And the war in Gaza has both cooled the rapprochement between the Kingdom and Israel and made foreign investors more cautious when looking at the Gulf.

Will Saudi realize its dreams of terraforming the desert or will these giga-projects end up as white elephants come 2030? Despite these macro headwinds investor sentiment is still mostly positive. According to P3 Bulletin "Saudi Arabia is viewed as a much safer bet now than it was a few years ago, as it continues to modernize its business red tape, customs procedures and so on." But conflicts throughout the Middle East remain a wild card both for the Kingdom and the broader region. So don't get your skis sharpened for a trip to NEOM after watching Saudi Arabia lift the 2032 World Cup just yet.

Saudi Arabia’s futuristic megaprojects are so expensive that even its oil riches may not be enough

Saudi Arabia is starting to sell debt again and offload more Aramco shares to help fund projects such as the Neom desert megacity, The Wall Street Journal reported.

InsiderTom Porter

‘Full steam ahead’ for Saudi giga-projects

Schemes are currently buffered from conflict – but that could change, warns expert

Partnerships and P3 BulletinAlicia Buller

Infrastat of the week.

44 percent: Decrease in funding for construction tech startups in 2023, down to $3 billion from $5.4 billion in 2022, although there have been some notable rounds recently for PermitFlow ($31M), Shepherd ($13.5M), and Document Crunch ($9M).

5 contech firms pull in cash amid funding downturn

Companies focused on productivity tools, robots and AI-powered back office platforms have found success recently with investment rounds.

Construction DiveMatthew Thibault

Investors are bullish on technology changing the sluggish trajectory of the North American transportation P3 market.

Large transportation P3s have been increasingly few and far between in recent years thanks to federal funding from IIJA and IRA and other well-documented commercial and risk challenges, particularly in the horizontal infrastructure markets. But a recent poll of P3 Bulletin investors and practitioners has the industry feeling more positive about the future of the delivery model thanks to an influx of new technologies and interested verticals.

First, while government agencies are generally shunning mega-project P3s in the US, they are interested in leveraging private capital and expertise in the microtransit and last-mile delivery markets, among other mobility sectors. For example, "transit tech" companies like Via have partnered with Arlington National Cemetery and the City of Denver (among other similar clients) on last-mile delivery and microtransit solutions, while various municipalities in California are also exploring how to leverage P3s in surface transportation and transit innovation corridors.

Second, investors are bullish on P3 opportunities for battery storage and hydrogen fueling networks, particularly for electrifying bus, rental car, and trucking fleets. But public EV charging networks will likely remain elusive in the near-term because project financeable models still don't exist at scale. The recent lull in EV sales (40% year-over-year growth in 2023, down from 75% in 2022) continue to compound the sector's inertia in the US.

Finally, the industry at large is excited about AI's potential to derisk projects much earlier in the P3 process, as well as shorten overall delivery schedules as the digitalization of our industry accelerates. P3s are likely to remain part of the North American infrastructure scene. But in time and thanks to new technologies they are likely to look quite different from traditional horizontal procurements.

Transportation tech ‘to drive new P3s’

Exclusive: Experts discussing the future innovations for P3 have highlighted the various developments in the transportation sector as making significant progress in 2024 and beyond

Partnerships and P3 BulletinPartnerships and P3 Bulletin

Infraquote of the week:

What’s encouraging is it’s just continuing that structural decline in fossil fuels. We think it’s the lowest point ever, because before that fossil fuels were making up the majority and there wasn’t anything else to replace it.

Sarah Brown, Europe program director at think tank Ember, rhapsodizing about the EU's record-breaking drop in pollution from fossil fuel-based power plants in 2023, to less than a third of total electricity generation across the continent.

Fossil fuels are losing ground to renewable energy in Europe

There was a record drop in power grid pollution last year.

The Verge

Wind farm developers need to pay careful attention to "split estates" when negotiating project leases.

Earlier this year, a federal judge ordered Italy-based Enel Green Power North America, which is the fourth-largest US renewable energy developer, to deconstruct an 84-turbine, 150-megawatt wind power project on Osage Nation land in northern Oklahoma.

Construction on the wind farm started in 2013 and finished in 2015. The developer properly leased the surface rights from the tribe in the mid-2010s. But the court determined Enel had failed to properly secure the mineral (subsurface) rights it needed to construct the turbine foundations. (Each turbine requires bases that are 10 feet deep and 50 feet wide - another argument in favor of developing increasingly lighter wood turbines like those in Sweden which I mentioned here recently.)

In her decision, federal Judge Jennifer Choe-Groves of the Northern District of Oklahoma wrote that "[t]here is no genuine dispute of material fact that the continuation of the wind towers involved entering the mineral estate and using the extracted minerals without first obtaining the necessary lease.”

It is unclear why a (seemingly) sophisticated developer like Enel never secured the underground mineral rights or otherwise failed to understand the legal concept of "split estates" (i.e., between above- and below-ground property rights, which are pervasive in the West). "You can't just use the dirt," Quarles & Brady energy law partner Pilar Thomas told ENR.

Other local land use attorneys are also skeptical that Enel will ultimately tear down the project. Instead they predict a settlement given the wind farm's 1000-acre footprint and projected $300 million in demolition costs. Still, the Osage Nation bitterly opposed the project from its inception, so stay tuned.

Experts: Best Bet in $300M Osage Nation Wind Farm Dispute Is Negotiation

Court order to take down 150-MW Oklahoma project could be ‘yellow flag’ to other firms building on Native American sites without full rights above ground—and below.

Engineering News-RecordDaniel Tyson

Court Rules Energy Firm Enel Must Deconstruct 150MW Oklahoma Wind Farm

The Osage Nation wants the complete removal of the wind farm, power lines and infrastructure, which could cost the energy company upwards of $300 million.

Engineering News-RecordDaniel Tyson

In other industry-related news:

• Apple's electric car project is no more, and EV startups everywhere are struggling. (NYT; Chartr)
• While America's fledgling offshore wind industry also continues to struggle, the UK is about to put a record-breaking volume of wind power capacity in place. (E+T)
• A Chinese hyperloop maglev train set a new record speed of 387MPH on a 1.2-mile test track, but engineers aren't satisfied and hope to eventually break the sound barrier. (Live Science)
• Meanwhile, America's lone hope for hyperloop in Las Vegas - Elon Musk's Boring Company's test tunnels - are actually . . . leaking some chemical sludge. (CityLab)
• Finally, French industry giant Vinci has acquired Denver's Northwest Parkway, a 14-kilometer ring road, from a consortium of other international investors that includes Canada's Northleaf Capital Partners. The project was delivered as a P3 and remains America's longest concession, with 83 years to go on its 99-year term. (P3 Bulletin)

infrastruttura

no. 45

Automakers like Toyota haven't given up on hydrogen fuel cell-powered vehicles just yet.

America's battery-powered EV market has stalled and hydrogen-powered cars face myriad technical, practical, and logistical challenges. But many legacy automakers still believe the technology has a future, particularly in certain key mobility verticals that will be difficult to decarbonize using batteries alone.

For example, Honda and GM (which actually launched its first hydrogen-powered prototype in 1966, highlighting the industry's running joke that "hydrogen is the fuel of the future and always will be") have invested nearly $100M in a hydrogen fuel-cell manufacturing plant in Detroit, where they claim production costs have dropped by nearly 2/3. Stellantis recently started manufacturing hydrogen fuel cell-powered vans in Europe, Honda is planning to introduce a hydrogen version of its popular CR-V model in 2025, and BMW is testing its iX5 hydrogen fuel cell car (although it uses a Toyota fuel cell - more on that below).

infrastruttura

no. 44

The private asset management firm BlackRock is acquiring the world's biggest independent infrastructure investor in a $12.5 billion deal.

NYC-based Global Infrastructure Partners owns and manages over $100 billion in energy, transportation, digital, and water market sector assets, ranging from toll roads, the Port of Elizabeth (NJ), and data centers to wastewater utilities, airports in the UK and Australia, and even solar installations that power Walmarts. If it passes US regulatory muster the transaction would close later this year and create a $150 billion infrastructure investment platform to "mobilize long-term private capital through long-standing firm relationships," according to GIP founder/CEO Adebayo Ogunlesi, who also chairs President Biden’s National Infrastructure Advisory Council.

Geopolitics are driving increased global demand for trillions of dollars in new logistics, digital infrastructure, and decarbonization infrastructure. And in turn these asset classes are attracting increased attention from a broader swath of investors, priming the pump for a transaction of this magnitude. Coupled with BlackRock's existing $50 billion in infrastructure assets under management, the new combined entity should be large enough to command higher fees from larger institutional investors, including pensions, endowments, and sovereign wealth funds.

GIP is heavily focused on investments in the energy security space, where so much of the capital sloshing around the private infrastructure markets is likely to wind up (McKinsey says $15 trillion is needed by 2030 for the world to meet its climate commitments). For example, last July GIP acquired a 40% stake in TC Energy's Columbia Gas Transmission System, agreeing to spend over $1.2 billion in maintenance and capacity upgrades over the next three years. It has invested in some of the New York offshore wind projects, carbon capture technology, and wind farms through its 40 percent stake in Terra-Gen Power, which owns 23 of them across the West and New York State.

Recently, GIP also invested nearly $6 billion in the Freeport LNG terminal in Texas (where Bechtel is installing electric-powered natural gas liquification trains under a $12 billion turnkey EPC contract. Compared to gas turbine-powered LNG trains these should reduce this particular plant's overall carbon emissions by nearly 90%).

The Biden administration's focus on infrastructure and climate investments through IIJA, IRA, and CHIPS are also creating strong tailwinds for private investment in infrastructure (even as the P3 market in North America, outside of social infrastructure, remains muted). For example, in the last year, Brookfield invested $15 billion in Intel's $30 billion semiconductor manufacturing facility in Arizona, Digital Realty sank $5.3 billion into data centers, and Goldman Sachs Infrastructure Partners spent $4.2 billion to acquire Chicago's Rockford International Airport.

Why are investors so excited about infrastructure?

From both micro and macro perspectives it is not surprising that investors continue to find infrastructure attractive as an asset class. In fact, BlackRock's chairman Larry Fink told investors on a recent earnings call that the firm views infrastructure assets as one of the world's "most exciting long-term investment opportunities," given that both digital and physical infrastructure will continue to evolve and expand as dirigiste governments everywhere "prioritize self-sufficiency and security." These words seem prescient given the dangers looming across the globe as the first month of 2024 comes to a close.

Infrastructure provides private investors with stable cash flows (i.e. from a toll road, or user fees, or utility charges) and can help hedge portfolios against inflation risk (because many cash flows are indexed to inflation). Returns are also less "correlated," in the sense that they can remain positive in the face of negative macroeconomic headwinds. This is because infrastructure in most cases provides an essential service, a fixed asset supply operates under long-term contracts with limited competition, and the cost of developing those assets requires a long-term investment horizon.

Are there any consequences from increased private investment in public assets?

It's true that private infrastructure can foster innovation when companies offload the development of assets that are not core to their business (think Walmart partnering with GIP to develop those solar power systems). And more capital can translate into increased project opportunities and the potential for larger and more complex projects that benefit more people and geographies. This can create new processes and technologies, which could also help the industry shake off its fusty reputation and deliver the necessary improvements to productivity that future investors will demand. But there are potential downsides to the consolidation of investment platforms, which the BlackRock/GIP deal could wind up exacerbating.

First, increasing private investment in public assets will inevitably wrench control over those assets away from the public and into private hands, translating into less control and accountability for taxpayers and the primary users of those assets. By the same token, taxpayers will have less say over where private funds are deployed, which could increase inequality and have uneven social and environmental impacts for communities with different demographic characteristics.

Finally, from the AEC industry's perspective in the trenches, more funding for projects could both increase competition and pressure firms' already thin margins. This same pressure could also accelerate the trend of offshoring design and investor demands to leverage AI and other generative design technologies that may not be quite ready for prime time. Ultimately it could create a flywheel effect of lower quality, safety, and performance standards that ultimately delivers poorly performing assets.

But that's a worst-case scenario. Increased funding for more projects that can help meet the geopolitical moment, fight climate change, and ease the energy transition away from fossil fuels should be cheered.

BlackRock to Buy GIP in Link of US Infrastructure Investment Giants

In $12.5B deal, the asset manager would acquire Global Infrastructure Partners’ $106M infrastructure investment portfolio per a Jan. 12 announcement.

Engineering News-RecordMary B. Powers

Infraquote of the week.

The history of Venice is a 2,000 year history of adaptation, in which the solutions were found by trial and error. I am optimistic because there will be great transformation in the future.

Giovanni Cecconi, one of the engineers who designed Venice's MOSE flood prevention system, on how new technologies and approaches could prevent La Serenissima from slipping away permanently under the rising tides of the Adriatic.

Venice Keeps Flooding. Here’s How an Engineer Would Solve It.

Venice spent about $6 billion on a mobile floodgate system that can block high tides from inundating the city. But it won’t be enough. WSJ explores potential solutions to protect the “floating city” from being overrun by water. Photo illustration: MacKenzie Coffman

The Wall Street Journal

The Biden administration is about to dole out $150 million to 24 grant recipients in 20 states who will physically upgrade the reliability of EV charging infrastructure.

The funds will repair or replace around 4500 existing EV charging ports, and come from the National Electric Vehicle Infrastructure (NEVI) Formula Program, a new $5 billion funding mechanism created by IIJA.

The Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) is administering NEVI in order to help states build out an EV charging network that the Biden administration hopes will offer more than 500,000 public EV chargers by 2030. The administration continues to promote the 70% increase in publicly available EV charging ports since President Biden's inauguration and a quadrupling of EV sales in the US during that same time period as evidence of the strides America is making towards a full-blown EV transition.  

Unfortunately EVs have been in the headlines lately for less auspicious reasons as sales stalled unexpectedly during the final quarter of 2023. But some recent federal EV initiatives should help the fledgling industry regain momentum. These include $600 million in funding for 47 EV charging projects in 22 states under the Charging and Fueling Infrastructure (CFI) Discretionary Grant Program, awarded at the very start of 2024, and Ohio and New York opening the country's first fast EV charging stations funded through the NEVI Formula Program mentioned above (although it appears at least in the Empire State some kinks still need to be worked out).

USDOT to upgrade almost 4,500 public EV chargers | Traffic Technology Today

The Biden-Harris Administration has announced it is awarding nearly $150 million to 24 grant recipients in 20 states to make existing electric vehicle

Traffic Technology TodayWeb Team

We tested one of the first federal NEVI charging stations in the US — and the experience wasn’t great | GreenBiz

The NEVI-funded EV fast-chargers at a New York site underperformed and offered a subpar user experience.

GreenBizVartan Badalian

Infrastat of the week.

$1.6 billion: Loan proceeds that New York-based Plug Power expects to receive from the US Department of Energy to construct six green hydrogen production plants across the country that, when completed in 2025, would produce 500 tons per day.

Green Hydrogen Pioneer Plug Power To Build 6 Plants with Big US Loan

DOE $1.6B infusion would ease startup’s financial strain in scaling up domestic market, with $6B in Finland construction also planned to boost Euro supply

Engineering News-RecordMary B. Powers

China's Belt and Road Initiative is struggling in Africa, creating an opening for the US to leverage its geopolitical heft against the influence of Beijing.

In a "shot across the bow" of the CCP the US plans to lend $250 million to the Angolan government in order to challenge China's influence and presence in southern Africa, spurring the development of a critical, $1.7 billion, green-energy metal freight rail corridor that would carry millions of tons of copper and cobalt out of the Congo, to Angola's Atlantic coast.

In 2022, Angola turned down a Chinese bid to operate the line (known as the Lobito Corridor) and instead granted a 30-year concession to a European consortium (backed by the US). This is important because Angola has, historically, been Africa's largest recipient of Beijing-backed Belt and Road Initiative infrastructure development loans.

America's machinations in Africa are focused on other geopolitical priorities besides China. For example, Russia's Wagner mercenary group has for years backed numerous anti-Western militant groups, creating chaos for governments across the continent. In response, the Biden administration has pushed the U.S. Export-Import Bank to backstop loans for solar energy projects, pre-fabricated bridges, and other rail projects in Africa that could strengthen economies, governments, and other civil institutions that have historically fallen victim to post-colonial foreign interference and exploitation.

U.S. Celebrates Progress of Lobito Corridor Project

The Lobito Corridor project connects the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Zambia to Angola’s Port of Lobito.

Energy Capital & PowerThaakira Samodien

The Lobito Corridor: Washington’s Answer to Belt and Road in Africa | Geopolitical Monitor

With the launch of the Lobito Corridor, Washington has made clear its intention to compete with China’s Belt and Road Initiative in Africa.

Geopolitical MonitorAlex Stonor

Around the industry.

• Chicago's transit system is asking the State of Illinois for help with budget cuts. (Axios)
• Meanwhile, in the Garden State, New Jersey Transit is planning to raise fares by 15 percent this summer, with more increases to follow in subsequent years. (Politico)
• Why a "new approach" is necessary for the UK to deliver mega-projects in the aftermath of HS2 and Brexit. (P3 Bulletin)
• Urbanists everywhere should rue the demise of micromobility companies, even if e-scooters aren't your preferred means of public transportation. (Fast Company)
• Fusion: will it remain America's "power of the future" indefinitely, or are there reasons to be optimistic about its near-term commercial viability? (Space.com)

infrastruttura

no. 43

The market for electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) short-haul flights could run into the trillions by mid-century. But where will all of these future trips find the space they'll need to operate safely?

As a kid (like many of you too, I suspect) I loved to play SimCity and imagine what the built environment would look like deep into the future. Despite the gloom that's settled over the world entering 2024, it's exciting that we're living in a moment where delivery drones and eVTOLs are on the verge of visually transforming our cities in some of the ways that we imagined when we were kids. In fact, both were everywhere at this year's CES in Las Vegas, which recently wrapped up.

infrastruttura

no. 42

Despite the good vibes why is America's EV "revolution" stuck in the mud?

Ask a random person on the street how they feel about electric cars and odds are their feedback will be positive. For example, back in June, a poll found 40% of Americans want to buy an EV. But that anecdotal support has not translated into actual sales for domestic automakers.

During the third quarter of 2023, EVs constituted just 8 percent of new vehicle sales in the US. In fact, just 1 million were purchased - barely 50 percent more than in Europe (where the automobile market is much smaller. For example, in Italy, there are only 45 million cars for over 60 million Italians. This works out to a ratio of about 0.75 cars per person, compared to .79 in Australia and .91 in the US. The global average is .22 cars per person.)

Worse still by comparison, the Chinese bought 4 times as many EVs as Americans last year. Just three states (California, Texas, and Florida) account for about half of new EV registrations in the US. And 92 days worth of EV inventory remains on US dealership lots this holiday season versus just 54 for ICE vehicles. After all the post-IRA and IIJA hype about America's EV transition the slow pace of adoption is both a surprise and a problem given that cars themselves create nearly 20% of America's overall carbon emissions.

So what's behind America's struggles to make the EV transition? There are a few key problems. First is the EV pricing structure. Today the typical EV sells in the US for $52K (just over the average ICE vehicle's price of $48K). But the total cost of owning an EV today is actually higher due to the cost of installing at-home charging infrastructure, EV-specific insurance premiums that are stubbornly high, and the relatively low price of gas in the US (as compared to the EU and China).

Second, while on paper it looks great, the federal government's $7500 tax credit for new EV purchases is finicky; eligibility for various EV models is confusing thanks to opaque Buy America Act supply chain requirements. Finally, cheaper EVs are hard to find. Not only are Chinese models effectively excluded from the US market thanks to tariffs and other red tape, but GM and Honda recently canceled plans to build a $5B EV plant in the US that was slated to build less expensive alternatives. Ford and Tesla have announced similar delays too. (Toyota however did recently announce plans to increase its investment in a North Carolina EV battery manufacturing facility by $8 billion.)

While many EV manufacturers are slashing prices to move inventory out of US dealership lots this will not be enough on its own to jumpstart the EV revolution. Instead, firms are delaying investments in the hope that the market turns soon. America's ability to hit its climate targets may depend on it. (The Economist)

Is America’s EV revolution stalling?

Its motorists aren’t won over by battery power—yet

The EconomistThe Economist

Automakers Delay Electric Vehicle Spending as Demand Slows

Growth is brisk but slower than expected, causing automakers to question their multibillion-dollar investments in new factories and raising doubts about the effectiveness of federal incentives.

The New York TimesJack Ewing

Infraquote of the week.

"The future of American green buildings lies in embracing the potential of bio-based materials. We're talking about hempcrete walls, mycelium insulation, and even mushroom-based bricks. These aren't just eco-friendly alternatives – they're stronger, lighter, and even offer natural antimicrobial properties. By investing in sustainable materials research and incentivizing their adoption, we can build a future where our buildings are not just energy-efficient, but truly regenerative for our planet."

Vermont state senator Sarah Jones, speaking at a conference on sustainable materials and green building innovations held in Burlington on November 18, 2023.

AI's carbon footprint is already massive, and it's still growing.

For the first time an academic study has calculated the carbon footprint created by AI inquiries (although it hasn't been peer-reviewed yet). Researchers at Carnegie Mellon and the AI startup Hugging Face analyzed the carbon emissions from ten of the most popular inquiries on the startup's platform (answering questions, generating images, etc.) using a script called Code Carbon to calculate the amount of energy consumed by the computer serving the inquiry.

The results were both interesting and, from a climate perspective, sobering. Generating a single image using AI required as much energy as fully charging a smartphone. Those from text-only inquiries fared better, generating only 16 percent of that amount for 1000 inquiries combined. But according to the study creating 1000 images with an AI-powered model will generate the same amount of carbon emissions as driving about 4 miles in your ICE vehicle.

Training AI models uses a lot of energy too. But it's the actual use of these models that will ultimately generate the bulk of their significant carbon impact, adding up quickly as millions and even billions of inquiries run every day on AI-powered platforms. (One estimate counts the number of ChatGPT users alone at over 10 million every day.)

The study also points out an important distinction in carbon footprint between different types of AI models. For example, an AI that performs a specific task will be nearly thirty times less carbon-intensive than one that is generative. Yet new models and products are moving in the opposite direction. For example, Google once claimed its legacy search function required just 0.3 watt-hours (equal to the emissions from driving .0003 miles in an ICE vehicle). But because the Google search function now includes generative AI the carbon footprint of even a regular Google search is likely much higher (but today that actual figure remains unknown).

The point of the research is threefold. First, to get all of us to be more selective when choosing to use (or ignore) AI-powered tools. Markets should also pressure the tech industry to develop data centers and other computing platforms that are powered by renewable energy sources. And AI tools should be more focused and specialized in order to minimize their energy and carbon intensity. It's reductive, of course, but if we care about the planet let's get out our old Encyclopedia Britannicas before serving up another inquiry to Bard or ChatGPT. (MIT Technology Review)

AI’s carbon footprint is bigger than you think

Generating one image takes as much energy as fully charging your smartphone.

MIT Technology ReviewMelissa Heikkilä

Making an image with generative AI uses as much energy as charging your phone

This is the first time the carbon emissions caused by using an AI model for different tasks have been calculated.

MIT Technology ReviewMelissa Heikkilä

Infrastat of the week.

27: the number of different transit agencies in the San Francisco Bay Area. Unlike other parts of the world, America's public transit systems are highly fragmented, creating cost and complexity that make it the world's most expensive market to build new transportation assets.

America’s public transit systems could learn a lesson or two from how other countries do things.

Unlike their peers overseas, public transit systems in the US have still yet to fully recover from the pandemic. Here’s what they could do to change that.

World Economic Forum

The EU is building a continent-wide hydrogen pipeline network but it's not going to be cheap.

The cross-border, 53,000-kilometer "hydrogen backbone" that Europe hopes to build by 2040 will unfortunately cost billions of Euros more than planners initially thought. The European Hydrogen Backbone, a consortium of 33 energy companies which is trying to construct the pipeline, acknowledged recently that the price tag for the project, which had been estimated at $87 billion to $150 billion, might be "massively" underestimated thanks to the lingering impacts of post-pandemic supply chains and inflationary pressures.

The consortium's new report on the project, Implementation roadmap - Cross border projects and costs updates, concluded that the average price for the network's components has increased, in some cases dramatically. For example, since 2019 the average per-kilometer costs of onshore hydrogen pipelines have increased across the EU by a heady €300,000 for 20-inch-diameter pipes, €1m for 36-inch-diameter pipes, and €1.6m for 48-inch-diameter pipes.

The network would include subsea pipelines and connections from the EU to both offshore energy hubs and regions for potential hydrogen exports (including Scandinavia). Plans for the backbone had also called for the consortium to leverage existing infrastructure for 60% of the network but build new pipelines for the rest of it. But now that framework may need to be rethought.

Guidehouse, the consulting firm that generated the report for the consortium, says that an updated estimate "will depend on getting an up-to-date, exact planned make-up of the hydrogen gas grid — such as the exact sizes of pipes used in each stretch and proportion of new versus repurposed pipelines — as determined by its members."

By 2030, the European Union is aiming to have 20 million tons of hydrogen running through this EU-wide system at a cost of around $0.25 per kilogram of hydrogen (when transported over 1000 kilometers). A similar target also exists in the US, where America's Department of Energy announced a "Hydrogen Shot," in June of 2021 to try and drop the cost of green hydrogen from $5 per kilogram to $1 by 2030 (i.e. $1 for 1 kilogram in 1 decade - this would be at the same scale that solar and wind power costs have also decreased over the last decade).

But if individual nodes within the overall EU network are delayed or never completed on account of spiraling costs the continent's goals for the gas could be in jeopardy. Hydrogen, of course, has become an increasingly important alternative to fossil fuels in corners of the economy that are difficult to electrify (like long-haul trucking, freight rail, and various industrial applications). (HydrogenInsight)

The European Hydrogen Backbone (EHB) initiative | EHB European Hydrogen Backbone

The European Hydrogen Backbone (EHB) initiative consists of a group of thirty-three energy infrastructure operators, united through a shared vision of a climat…

EHB logo

Around the industry.

• The University of South Florida has decided to drop design-build as the delivery model for its new football stadium project, citing concerns over supply chain and shifting priorities away from expediting the project schedule. (ENR)
• Most rail systems globally are already electrified - and that will be the case soon too in North America. (Forbes)
• Making public transit "smarter" for riders will increasingly come at the expense of their anonymity. (Engadget)
• American retail spaces are now the smallest they've ever been since CoStar started tracking new leasing activity in 2006. (WSJ)
• Simulating what 30 centimeters of sea rise could look like in the world's major cities over the next 30 years. (CNN)

infrastruttura

no. 41

Premiums are coming down but insurers aren't sold (yet) on mass timber projects.

The benefits of using mass timber as the primary structural member in new construction are well-known; some studies peg the reduction in carbon footprint at over 70 percent compared to concrete and steel construction. Timber buildings are lighter so foundations are shallower, reducing material and labor costs. They can also shrink construction schedules and effectively guard against hazard risks (fire, earthquakes, hurricanes). So why are insurance premiums on timber jobs still stubbornly high? There are a few key reasons detailed in this interesting recent article from Risk & Insurance.

infrastruttura

no. 40

The global risk and claims consultancy HKA has released its sixth annual root cause analysis of global problem construction projects, concluding that a "triple design whammy" caused nearly half of them.

The Sixth Annual CRUX Insight Report, Forewarned is Forearmed, reviewed 1800 projects in 106 countries valued cumulatively at nearly $2.25 trillion. These projects generated claims and disputes that HKA worked on during a six-year period through August of 2023. The report ranks and analyzes the root causes of issues that created the problem projects in the first place. The key takeaways are particularly insightful given the report's global reach and deep dive into certain market sectors.

infrastruttura

no. 38

Twelve cities on four continents are using a Google-powered AI to calculate and optimize durations for traffic lights.

Seattle, Jakarta, Rio de Janeiro, Haifa, Budapest, Abu Dhabi, Bali, and Hamburg are among the participants in Google's Project Green Light, which uses data from the Google Maps platform to suggest changes to timing sequences at traffic lights. Project Green Light is part of a suite of tools that the company's researchers and technologists are developing to help improve sustainability across the built environment, from suggesting fuel-efficient routing for car trips to calculating the carbon footprint for travel itineraries on Google Flights.

The platform uses a Google AI model to "infer" the timing of traffic signals from Maps data, and how (or how not) they are synchronized (like northbound on 10th Avenue in Manhattan, where staying at or below 30MPH will get you uptown in a jiffy). From there, over a course of several weeks, the AI can suggest tweaks to the timing of certain lights (primarily at intersections) in order to improve traffic flow. And the AI is sufficiently advanced where it can also filter out suggestions that might negatively impact pedestrians (although not all users have found this feature helpful).

Cities participating in the pilot program can have their engineers simply log into a Google dashboard that shows them the AI's recommendations and either implement them remotely (if their city's infrastructure supports it) or go out into the field and flip the switch manually themselves. The cities participating in Project Green Light to date have used the platform to make timing adjustments to traffic lights at 70 intersections, including 13 in Kolkata where commuters have been "pleased" with the results. And so far they have reduced the number of of traffic light stops for 30 million cars by 30 percent, cutting their emissions by 10 percent.

On the other hand, Transport for Greater Manchester, in England, believes the platform fails to "take into account prioritization of buses, pedestrians, and certain thoroughfares." So there are still some kinks to work out. The company is collaborating with Berkeley and Israel's Technion University to refine the initiative and plans to expand the service to more cities across the world next year.

Municipal budgets are tight and making traffic lights "smarter" isn't easy given the necessary cross-department coordination, high cost of upgrading legacy systems and technologies, and the relative lack of traffic engineers on the public dole. For these reasons, and as Texas A&M professor Guni Sharon told Wired, Project Green Light is "a worthy goal with a significant potential for real-world impact." Drivers wait on average about 20 seconds every time they stop at a red light; idling both costs drivers time and creates unnecessary carbon emissions. For example, every second that vehicles are stopped at a light in Seattle burns the equivalent of an additional 19 barrels of oil annually (generating over 1000 metric tons of CO2 every day).

Professor Sharon is also studying the impact of AI-powered tools on traffic. But his research is focused instead on the potential for broader AI tools that can collect data from sensors in real-time and adjust lights and traffic flows accordingly (essentially an Internet of Things approach that could also implicate blockchain and other advanced edge computing technologies).

Google's results are just the beginning of what appears to be a much broader initiative that, someday, could be a paid service for municipalities and transportation agencies. For now at least it - along with the rich trove of traffic data from Maps - remains free for cities and their engineering departments. But AI applications are coming for transportation no matter what, so idling at your neighborhood red light could soon be a thing of the past. (Wired, Google)

Google’s AI Is Making Traffic Lights More Efficient and Less Annoying

Google is analyzing data from its Maps app to suggest how cities can adjust traffic light timing to cut wait times and emissions. The company says it’s already cutting stops for millions of drivers.

WIREDCondé Nast

Project Green Light’s work to reduce urban emissions using AI

Google’s Green Light uses AI to optimize traffic lights, saving fuel and reducing emissions.

GoogleYossi Matias

Quotable.

This is a major steppingstone in co-developing hydrogen-powered train systems for operations suitable for and meeting the increasing capacity need of the Kingdom and Saudi Arabia Railways (SAR) networks. We are committed to working with SAR in their drive to support the Kingdom's engagements on clean energy and a net-zero target by 2060.

Mohamed Khalil, Managing Director, Alstom Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia is partnering with Alstom to launch the Middle East's first hydrogen-powered train.

Later this month Saudi Arabia Railways (SAR) and Alstom plan to demonstrate and operate the latter's Coradia iLint locomotive in Riyadh. The Coradia iLint became the world's first hydrogen-powered passenger train when it debuted in Berlin in 2016 before Alstom launched the first of two commercial lines using the locomotive in Germany in 2018. It has a range of up to 1000 kilometers, can reach maximum speeds of nearly 150kmh, and emits only water as a byproduct during operations.

Technically the Coradia iLint is not actually "powered" by hydrogen but rather a fuel cell that generates electricity from a chemical reaction between hydrogen stored on the train and oxygen pulled from the air outside. The demonstration project will run for around 20 kilometers along Lines 1 or 2 of Riyadh's East Network. According to Alstom, this is the next step under an MOU it signed with SAR in 2022 that outlined hydrogen-based solutions for the Kingdom's mobility needs, part of Saudi Arabia's Green Initiative and Vision 2030 plans.

Part of the SAR/Alstom team's charge during the demonstration project will be to vet whether hydrogen trains can even operate in the Kingdom's harsh desert and environmental conditions; excessive heat can cause increased electrical resistance in a hydrogen fuel cell's components, reducing the overall efficiency of the electrochemical reactions and therefore generating less power overall.

But the train's prospects in Saudi look good: last year, the Coradia iLint clocked 1175 kilometers without needing to refuel its hydrogen storage tanks and the teams are optimistic about their chances of success in Saudi. (Mashable ME, Alstom)

Saudi Arabia set to introduce hydrogen-powered trains

Saudi Arabia, the world’s leading oil exporter, is set to become the Middle East’s pioneer in adopting hydrogen trains.

Mashable MESujita Sinha

Saudi Arabia Railways (SAR) partners with Alstom to showcase the world’s first passenger hydrogen train in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

World’s first hydrogen-powered train demo in the Middle East and Africa

Alstomtheresa.cedealstomgroup.com

Infrastat of the week.

$26,700,000,000

That's $26.7 billion: the amount that running the Rainbow Nation's ports and railroads has cost South Africa's government since 2010, and one of the reasons why the state is looking to unload the operations and maintenance of these facilities to the private sector.

South Africa Wants to Hand Operation of Rail, Ports to Business After $27 Billion Hit

(Bloomberg) -- The South African presidency has a plan to reverse the collapse of a state-run ports and freight-rail sector that’s cost the economy at least $26.7 billion since 2010: hand over most of the responsibility for fixing it to the private sector.Most Read from BloombergIsrael Latest: Move…

Yahoo FinanceAntony Sguazzin

The "strategic" and "high-demand" high-speed passenger rail corridor between London and Paris could soon have another operator joining Eurostar.

Private passenger rail is having its moment, from the Brightline service between Orlando and Miami to what would be a similarly branded line between LA and Vegas. But neither of those routes are as high-profile or potentially as profitable as the line between London and Paris, which netted Eurostar over $325M in profits in 2022. Now, the Spanish firm Evolyn is partnering with (once again) Alstom to launch a second service between the two cities that could begin operating as soon as 2025. (Although there is some mystery around Evolyn, its investors, and its ownership structure.)

Traffic along the corridor has slumped since the double whammy of COVID and Brexit, but Evolyn is bullish on it bouncing back: the operator will buy 12 trains from Alstom along with an option to purchase 4 more, investing over $1B into launching the new service. Just 10 million passengers currently ride the route each year, less than half of its maximum capacity. (Eurostar may reinstate stops at several interim stations to help boost ridership but has no imminent plans to do so.)

Eurostar is currently the only operator along the London to Paris high-speed corridor that passes through the Chunnel, which opened to much fanfare in the 1990s (after years of delays worthy of a hypo on a law school contracts exam). The UK, France, and Belgium each had a stake in Eurostar at the time, but the UK sold its interest for nearly $1B to investors in Canada and the US in 2014. (Since then, Eurostar has merged with the French operator Thalys, which itself rebranded this fall as "Eurostar Red.") Regardless of ownership structure Eurostar is aiming to carry 30M passengers annually by 2030 - up from around 19M pre-pandemic.

Passenger rail service in the US only pencils out along certain corridors that are, in Eurostar's words, "strategic and high-demand," like the Northeast Corridor between Boston and Richmond and, potentially, LA and Vegas (although it's debatable whether that route is at all "strategic.")

Could a crown jewel like the Northeast Corridor become similarly privatized? Probably not anytime soon. But with private capital continuing to slosh through global infrastructure funds, and governments pushing transit alternatives as part of decarbonization goals, high-profile assets will remain attractive targets for investors. Anything is possible in the future of passenger rail. (The Guardian)

Spanish rail firm planning London to Paris service to rival Eurostar

Evolyn says route is ‘strategic and high demand’ and it intends to launch its first service in 2025

The GuardianKim Willsher

Rail News - Amtrak comments on NEC privatization proposal. For Railroad Career Professionals

Progressive Railroading Daily News

Progressive Railroading

Around the industry.

• Retrofitting America's emptied out downtowns from offices to housing won't be easy - or cheap. (WSJ)
• Nor will upgrading the global electricity grid, which needs to add 80 million kilometers of transmission lines by 2040 for the world to hit its emissions reduction targets, requiring capital investments to double to $600B annually by 2030. (The Guardian)
• In San Francisco the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration is investigating Cruise and its robotaxis for a spate of recent pedestrian injuries. (Smart Cities Dive)
• The world's tallest wooden tower is coming to . . . Perth, Australia? The 50-story, 700-foot residential building would feature 200 apartments and take the title from the Ascent in Milwaukee. The Perth project would actually be a hybrid timber tower, built 42% from cross-laminated timber and the rest with reinforced concrete. (CNN)
• The FHWA has approved New York's electric vehicle charging plan, allowing the state to receive its next tranche of $38M in funding from the National Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Program, and keeping it on track to install fast-charging stations along state highways by 2025. (Transportation Today)

infrastruttura

no. 37

The UK's decision to cancel the northern leg of its HS2 high-speed rail system between Manchester and Birmingham brings fresh scrutiny on the escalating construction costs of mega-projects.

It's also a good opportunity to consider those metrics in comparison with the mega-project experience in the US, which faces many of the same issues plaguing large infrastructure projects in the UK.

But first some background: HS2 dates from 2009 and is the brainchild of former prime minister Gordon Brown, who promised to connect the deindustrializing north of England with London and the booming south with a £20B high-speed rail system. Today, costs have increased to £100B, with the leg between London and Birmingham topping £400M per mile (in France, similar high-speed rail costs just £50M per mile). Canceling the northern leg will free up £10B that the UK plans to spend on improving east-west rail connections and road infrastructure across the north (including the Northern Powerhouse Rail link).

Critics of HS2 point to the UK's poor track record of delivering mega-projects in the rail sector, including Crossrail in London (years late and billions over budget) and the Edinburgh tram system (7 years late and double the initial budget). According to the Britain Remade initiative, it is now 2.5 times more expensive per mile to build new rail in the UK than in France.

For underground rail, the UK is twice as expensive as in Italy, three times as expensive as in Germany, and six times as expensive than in Spain. (A similar report from the Eno Center for Transportation found the US at the top of a per-mile tunneled cost list with Italy near the bottom, with the US paying 48% more per-mile for at-grade transit and 57% more below grade.)

infrastruttura

no. 36

The longest underground rail tunnel in the world has been under construction in the Alps for a decade - but it won't open until 2032 at the earliest.

The Brenner Base Tunnel (BBT) is a 30-mile-long, $11B mega-project on the border of Italy and Austria that cuts underneath the Alps. For a number of reasons that are both political and technical it won't be finished for another decade. A closer look at the challenges the EU is facing in building the tunnel echo those that the rest of the world must confront in order to build infrastructure that meets its climate, security, and mega-project goals.

But first some background: the Trans-European Transport Network, or the TEN-T, is an infrastructure plan that the EU launched in the 1990s to better connect the continent through 9 main trade corridors. The Brenner Pass is a critical bottleneck along the longest of those corridors, which links North Sea ports in Scandinavia with those to the south in the Mediterranean. It is also a critical node that ties together the $4T and $2T German and Italian economies. (For example, in 2020, Italy exported nearly $90B in goods to Germany while importing $80B worth.)

infrastruttura

no. 35

Fifty-seven percent of the world thinks governments are underinvesting in infrastructure.

Together with Ipsos, the Global Infrastructure Investor Association recently surveyed 23,000 adults in 31 countries on their views of governments' levels of investment in infrastructure, as well as the quality of their country's assets in various sectors. This survey updates a 2021 version that GIIA carried out in advance of the COP26 meeting in Glasgow. As you might expect, the results are packed with insights about how policymakers should prioritize political and investment capital.

First, like so much else, the pandemic appears to have at least modestly shifted attitudes across the world towards how governments should fund infrastructure spending. Only 29% of those surveyed favor higher taxes or deficit financing for infrastructure projects. But this figure is up from 22% in 2018. And a clear majority (64%) believe that the costs of paying for new projects should be shared evenly between current and future taxpayers/generations (i.e. current taxes versus long-term deficit spending).

infrastruttura

no. 34

As China's and the West's dueling plans for global infrastructure investment crystallize in the coming months it's likely both will include significant project finance components.

Having a framework to think about how risks are shared between project stakeholders in that context will therefore become increasingly important as capital is deployed globally on mega-projects (and "giga-projects" - more on them below).

A neat video that I saw on LinkedIn does exactly this, explaining concisely how each risk plays out across the entire infrastructure project life cycle. Most importantly, it outlines which parties should generally retain each risk (though of course the particulars will vary based on the project's scope, market sector, and location).

Here's a quick summary of how that exercise should end up: each risk is allocated to the party in the best position to manage it. Of course, this allocation is always much easier said than done (as you can see below where some risks must be shared between stakeholders. Credit to Financial Model Online.)

The risks listed across the top of the matrix can be organized more generally into four main categories:

• Project-specific risks: these are the risks associated with project development (with a time horizon of 3-10 years needed in order to acquire land and permits, depending on the geography and scope), construction (1 to 5 years, also depending on the geography, scope, and project complexity), operations, and decommissioning.
• Macroeconomic risks: exchange rates, inflation.
• Political risks: changes in government leadership, priorities, geopolitics.
• Natural disasters

Project-specific risks in particular can be broken down further into pre-completion risks and post-completion risks.

Pre-completion risks

These risks can be very expensive to mitigate because they are highly speculative, even during the project development stage. They include the time-consuming tasks of executing technical studies, land acquisition, and permitting. At this point the sponsors (who set up the project company that will finance and develop the project) will in most cases be uncertain if they can even secure funding. So these risks will sit entirely with the sponsors. Their expertise developing (or walking away from) similar projects is really their only available risk mitigation tool.

It's also worth noting here that project finance is highly structured. Any issues that arise at each step in the project development chain can have knock-on impacts for those that follow, amplifying any subsequent liabilities for the project sponsors and their lenders. This is most critical during the construction stage, where there are three major pre-completion risks: delay, completion, and performance.

First, delay risk. Will the project get built on time and on budget? If not, the lenders will not get paid back as required. Buyers, or users, will not receive or get the benefit of the project's output. And suppliers will be unable to sell into the project (like the supplier of raw materials to an industrial processing plant).

This risk is contained within the project's EPC contract through a liquidated damages regime that should compensate the project company for each day of delay in an amount equal to the corresponding costs that it will incur (including financing and lost opportunity costs).

The second, related risk is completion risk. Will the project get built at all? The EPC contract will include a completion guarantee that is backstopped through a security package that can run the usual gamut of performance bonds, parent company guarantees, letters of credit, and/or other security depending on the location of the project and lender requirements. Finally, the EPC contractor will also take on the risk that when completed the project will actually perform as required (i.e. it must generate the expected levels of output).

Post-completion risks

Once a project is completed the risks become operational. First, there is revenue risk. Will a market exist for the asset's output at the projected price (i.e. power, traffic demand, etc.)? This risk can be mitigated through "take-or-pay" arrangements: commercial contracts where buyers agree to pay for a specific quantity of output at a specific price. This generates predictable cash flow for the project company and usually requires only a small number of buyers to set up.

On the other hand, if there are many "buyers" (or users) of an asset like a toll road or power plant, sponsors can mitigate their risk through government support (essentially subsidies that cover project fixed costs and debt service if revenues fall short). But this mitigation measure would only exist if the project is developed through a concession or P3, or if the government establishes an availability payment compensation model (these are fixed payments to the sponsors independent of any revenue the asset might generate, provided it remains in operation according to some minimum performance criteria set by the government).

Supply risks are the converse. They are mitigated through "put-or-pay" arrangements, where suppliers will agree to provide raw material to the project at a fixed price during a negotiated, fixed period of time. (Or they must provide the material from another source.) Finally, operational risks (that the project will perform as required and equipment will remain in a state of good repair) are assumed by the O&M contractor and allocated according to terms in the O&M contract.

Risks common to both pre-completion and post-completion phases

Some risks are by nature common to both phases. In general the project sponsors can shift macroeconomic risks to third parties. For example, inflation risks can be passed through contractually via a price escalation clause to the project off-taker (i.e. the buyer of the asset's output). Exchange rate risks (if the project is developed with hard currency but revenues are generated in the local currency) can be shifted to the host government through a compensation scheme in the project development agreement, or the sponsors can hedge them through other financial arrangements. Political and natural disaster risks can similarly be shifted in most cases to the host government or insurers.

There is obviously much more detail that goes into preparing a risk matrix for a cross-border project finance transaction involving complex civil infrastructure. But this outline is a good framework for thinking about how to shift each category of risk on these types of projects. (Financial Model Online)

Risks Allocation in Project Finance - Financial Modeling for Infrastructure Assets

#financialmodeling #projectfinance #financialmodelIn this lesson, we will go over the major maintenance reserve account in the project finance.https://www.fi...

YouTube

Saudi Arabia plans to double the size of Riyadh with over $1T in planned construction, hoping to transform its desert capital into a global city.

The West is trying to improve both connectivity and relations with its partners in the Middle East. But local infrastructure investment is also continuing at a frenetic pace as oil-rich governments try to position themselves for a hotter but hopefully cleaner future by diversifying their economies.

In Saudi Arabia, by the time the capital Riyadh hosts Expo 2030, its population could double from 7.5M to 15M thanks to nearly 700,000 new housing units either planned or already under construction. Thirty ongoing mega-projects in the transit and aviation sectors, coupled with a nearly $8B master plan for the Expo and loosened visa rules for tourists will also help turn Riyadh into what the Saudis believe can be a top-10 global city. But the city is already well on its way; today the capital generates nearly 50% of the Kingdom's non-oil economic activity.

Currently Riyadh has over $12B in projects under construction, including the $20B+ Riyadh Metro and a new Foster + Partners-designed, 6-runway international airport. Another $18B is at the evaluation and/or proposal stage and $170B is in the pipeline. All of this is part of Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030, which aims to modernize and diversify the Kingdom's economy away from fossil fuels, all driven by the country's deep-pocketed Public Investment Fund.

The master plan for Riyadh's Expo calls for a museum, a technology and design university, and more than 80 cultural and entertainment venues across 19 square kilometers on the northwest side of the city. For the 2030 event, Riyadh was selected over Italy's Rome, South Korea's Busan and Ukraine's Odesa; it is only the second Arab country to host an expo after Dubai, in the UAE, in 2020. (These expos are essentially a continuation of the world's fairs held in the US during the 20th century, and are held under the organizing auspices of the Paris-based Bureau International des Expositions international sanctioning body.)

Construction projects in Saudi Arabia are getting so big that they are not even called mega-projects anymore: instead they have been dubbed "giga-projects." These include NEOM (with $70B in contracts awarded, 45 percent of which are already complete), the Red Sea Project (a 30,000-square-kilometer coastal resort), and Qiddiya (an amusement park and resort destination southwest of Riyadh). (Construction Week)

2030 Expo bid puts the making of a green Riyadh in the limelight

JEDDAH: For decades, traditional urban planning approaches were applied in major cities across the world, resulting in sprawling forests of concrete devoid of adequate greenery. Riyadh, the Saudi capital, was no exception. That is why the Green Riyadh Project was launched in 2019 to transform the ci…

ArabnewsRawan Radwan

PIF | Public Investment Fund

The Public Investment Fund (PIF) is building a diversified portfolio by investing in attractive, long-term opportunities locally and internationally

Public Investment Fund, Saudi Arabia

Newark Liberty is the (not entirely) undeserving butt of airport jokes and, once again, finds itself at the bottom of a recent list of "mega-airport" passenger rankings.

But things should improve for EWR next time around for a few reasons: its sparkling new $2.7B Terminal A is getting rave reviews, while the Port Authority is also advancing plans for a P3 to replace the gloomy and outdated international Terminal B. (If you're keeping score, Seattle-Tacoma, Pearson in Toronto, and EWR were ranked at the bottom of this "mega-airport" list compiled from passenger feedback; Detroit, Minneapolis, and Las Vegas came out on top.)

EWR should get credit for some recent forward-thinking, too: it has launched an autonomous parking shuttle pilot project to test AV technology which the Port Authority ultimately hopes to deploy across its regional transportation assets, from EWR, LGA, and JFK to express bus lanes through the Lincoln Tunnel.

This particular AV shuttle is now running between EWR's new Terminal A and the P2 parking garage (which is connected to the AirTrain link between the airport and the New Jersey Transit/Amtrak EWR station along the Northeast Corridor). It is the first time an AV is operating on a public road anywhere in the state of New Jersey.

STV and Perrone Robotics are leading the month-long pilot project, which responded to a Port Authority RFP for "solutions to last-mile transit challenges for short-length transportation options." The team retrofitted a 14-passenger, all-electric GreenPower AV Star shuttle bus with AV technology for the pilot, incorporating road sensors, cameras, and mapping ability. It tested the shuttle on a safety course and then airport roads at night before launching.

EWR isn't the first American airport to test AV technology; Phoenix, Las Vegas, and DFW have all launched similar pilots. But earlier this year at JFK the Port Authority did test the first three-vehicle AV platoon together with Ohmio, a New Zealand-based autonomous mobility company, using eight-passenger AV shuttles traveling around 7 feet apart at 20MPH without any physical connections.

Airports are a good test environment for AVs for a few reasons. They are controlled, structured spaces (with well-maintained roads, clear signage, and reliable traffic patterns, compared to the chaos and complexity of city streets and highways). Airports also run on tight but consistent schedules, offering benchmarking opportunities to demonstrate how AV operations can improve efficiency. And they can also expose diverse audiences to new technologies, generating interest and support for transportation alternatives in other use cases.

The Port Authority continues to have ambitious expansion plans for all of its New York/New Jersey region infrastructure assets, driven in part by the looming 2026 World Cup and decades of underinvestment. AV technology has the potential to make connections within and between facilities easier, faster, and more reliable for those crowds (which in EWR's case should also help its rankings on the next passenger survey). (Transportation News Today, Business Insider)

Driverless Shuttle debuts at Newark Liberty International Airport - Transportation Today

Driving Discussion on Transportation & Infrastracture

Transportation Today NewsLiz Carey

The best airports in North America in 2023, according to a passengers survey

While Newark airport once again ranked dead last among mega airports, its undergoing a terminal upgrade that may eventually help it climb the ladder.

InsiderTaylor Rains

infrastruttura

no. 33

As China rethinks the strategy underpinning its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), the West has found an opening for advancing its own interests by also funding global infrastructure.

Geopolitics and infrastructure assets remain tied closely at the hip during our moment of heightened post-pandemic global tensions over supply chains, energy, Ukraine, and more. Driven in part by these factors, at an infrastructure event held at the recent G20 summit in New Delhi, the US and the EU, along with Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and other G20 nations, announced that they will sign an MOU to explore the development of a 3000-mile shipping and rail transportation link tying together India, the Middle East, and Europe.

The corridor is a direct challenge to the BRI (which G7 member Italy is actually trying to get out of). It will eventually connect Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and maybe Israel by freight rail, and then establish sea lanes on to Europe and India. America's deputy national security advisor, Jon Finer, told the Wall Street Journal that the plans are "expensive and ambitious," but are designed to curb Beijing's influence across the global south, allowing the US and its allies to promote their values and agendas in these critically important geopolitical regions. Yet China's experience with the BRI over the last decade should offer a cautionary tale for the West as it embarks on these initiatives.

infrastruttura

no. 32

The President's National Infrastructure Advisory Council has approved a report that recommends a federal strategy for addressing America's water crisis.

Building twenty-first century infrastructure to meet the country's water needs - let alone maintaining what's already in place - won't be easy, so the National Security Council charged NIAC in December of 2022 with answering the following question:

The report is focused only on water resources (not wastewater) and provides a draft set of recommendations across three key categories: aiding infrastructure owners and operators (through enforcing standards for water use and quality and making it easier to fund new projects); mitigating the cross-sector impacts on America's water supply (by investing in dams, reservoirs, and power generation); and creating a national water strategy.